WHAT IF: Area sectional matchups if they were seeded, 2024 edition

One of the biggest talking points every year around this time is seeding the sectional draw for football. 

Those who like to push that plan point to doing it by either overall record, some sort of analytical metric or by head-to-head records (when applicable). 

Outside the Huddle has put together a “what if” scenario in which the IHSAA adopts the Sagarin Ratings to seed the sectionals. The metric, developed by Jeff Sagarin, is used in numerous sports to rate teams based on a mathematical formula.

Below is what the area playoffs would look like based on Sagarin Ratings at the end of the regular season…

NOTE: This hypothetical also grants home-field advantage to the higher seed. 

CLASS 6A

Sectional 2

#4 Northrop (2-7) at #1 Carroll (7-2)
#3 Elkhart (8-1) at #2 Snider (7-2)

Sectional 4

#4 Homestead (5-4) at #1 Hamilton Southeastern (6-3)
#3 Noblesville (2-7) at #2 Fishers (5-4)

CLASS 5A

Sectional 11

#4 Goshen (0-9) at #1 Concord (9-0)
#3 North Side (5-4) at #2 Warsaw (6-3)

CLASS 4A

Sectional 19

#8 New Haven (1-8) at #1 East Noble (8-1)
#5 Wayne (3-5) at #4 Bishop Dwenger (4-5)
#6 DeKalb (4-5) at #3 Leo (7-2)
#7 South Side (2-7) at #2 Columbia City (8-1)

Sectional 20

#1 Logansport (8-1) bye
#5 Marion (5-4) at #4 Culver Academy (8-1)
#6 Muncie Central (2-7) at #3 Lebanon (6-2)
#7 Frankfort (0-9) at #2 Huntington North (6-3)

CLASS 3A

Sectional 26

#8 Concordia Lutheran (2-7) at #1 West Noble (8-1)
#5 Lakeland (5-3) at #4 Fairfield (4-5)
#6 Tippecanoe Valley (6-3) at #3 Angola (4-5)
#7 Woodlan (5-4) at #2 Garrett (9-0)

NOTE: Sectional 26 clearly shows the imperfection of using Sagarin Ratings, as it has West Noble a No. 1 seed despite a 17-6 loss to Garrett in Week 6.

Sectional 28

#8 Bellmont (0-9) at #1 Mississinewa (9-0)
#5 Oak Hill (6-3) at #4 Delta (4-5)
#6 Jay County (2-7) at #3 Bishop Luers (5-4)
#7 Norwell (2-7) at #2 Heritage (8-1)

CLASS 2A

Sectional 35

#8 Whitko (0-9) at #1 Adams Central (8-1)
#5 Manchester (5-4) at #4 Churubusco (4-5)
#6 Prairie Heights (4-5) at #3 Eastside (4-5)
#7 Central Noble (0-9) at #2 Bluffton (6-3)

Class 1A

Sectional 43

#1 North Miami (7-2) bye
#5 Southwood (0-9) at #4 Fremont (3-6)
#6 Southern Wells (0-9) at #3 Northfield (3-6)
#7 Blackhawk Christian (1-7) at #2 Triton (6-3)

Sectional 44

#8 Cambridge City Lincoln (1-8) at #1 Madison-Grant (8-1)
#5 Monroe Central (6-3) at #4 Hagerstown (3-6)
#6 Wes-Del (5-4) at #3 Tri (6-3)
#7 Union City (2-7) at #2 South Adams (4-5)